Core summary: The financial tsunami swept the world, and China's domestic market also showed a trend of decline in consumption. As a resource industry, coal is basically at the top of the industrial chain. Compared with other industries, the coal industry has shown lag in the face of this crisis. However, from late September, the supply of coal has gradually shifted from a tense situation at the beginning of the year to a loose one. By November this year, the supply and demand of the coal market had undergone a fundamental reversal. With the end of winter coal purchases in the northern regions, the demand in the downstream market will continue to decrease. The industry is concerned that the “cold winter†of coal companies will only really come early next year.
A. Data: Reversal of Supply and Demand Relations Coal prices at home and abroad successively “divideâ€
In the first three quarters of the year, the country's raw coal output was 1.934 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. The growth rate was 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, and the total social coal inventory reached 120 million tons. In the first eight months, the coal industry realized a profit of 139 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 times. However, since September, due to deceleration of demand, the supply and demand situation of coal has tended to ease, and the market price has gradually shifted from the rapid rise in the first half of the year to a gradual fall. The coal deposits of ports and power companies have increased.
Since September, the thermal coal market has gradually developed from a tight balance and a loose direction. The coal inventory of power plants has increased, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Market prices in some regions have declined. In November, the situation became even more severe. Coal prices in Qinhuangdao Port continued to “divide†and fell by nearly RMB 100/t per week. From June onwards, the demand for steel products declined, the market price dropped sharply, and the growth rate of output continued to decline. In August, negative growth began to occur, resulting in a sharp drop in the demand for coal coke products and a sharp drop in prices, which fell by 50 to 500 yuan/ton. . In September, the national chemical fertilizer production decreased year-on-year, and the demand for lump coal declined. As of November, the price of lump coal has dropped from RMB 1100 to RMB 1200/ton in September to RMB 600~900/ton.
In mid-October, the coal trading price of Newcastle Port on the global coal trading platform has dropped from US$161.35/ton in early September to less than US$110/ton. Recently, after the international crude oil price fell below 50 U.S. dollars, international coal prices appear to be repeating the trajectory of the former parabolic decline. The international coal price, which was already under US$100 per ton, fell by nearly US$12/ton in late November and fell to US$85.69/ton, with a fall of 12.13%. At the same time, the prices of dry bulk shipping, including coal, on international routes have also dropped significantly. The current level of purchasing Australia's high-quality thermal coal has approached the same quality of thermal coal in the domestic market and shipped from Qinhuangdao and other northern ports. The cost price level to Guangzhou Port.
B. One of the operating characteristics: The downstream market is shrinking sharply
All indications indicate that the economic growth rate of the main coal mining industry will further decline, even negative growth. Therefore, the growth rate of coal demand may further slow down and may even shrink.
In September, the US subprime mortgage crisis quickly evolved into a global financial turmoil. The international oil and natural gas prices dropped sharply, which put a certain pressure on coal prices. The thermal coal price in Newcastle, Australia, the world’s largest coal export port, continued to fall after setting a record of 19.79 U.S. dollars per ton on July 4. It fell back to about US$104.70 per ton on October 17. 46.3%. The same sharp decline also appeared in the European market. On October 17th, the European thermal coal price index fell from US$141.25/tonne in the previous week to US$120.72/tonne. Within a week, it dropped by 14.53%, setting the record for the biggest drop this year. .
In this context, China's coal exports in September amounted to 2.08 million tons, a sharp decline of 53.6% year-on-year, and the chain also fell by 38%, setting a new low since March of this year.
In the first nine months, the cumulative generating capacity of power plants above designated size nationwide was 26,072 billion kWh, an increase of 9.9% year-on-year, of which thermal power increased by 8.2%, and the growth rate decreased by 8.5 percentage points year-on-year. Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu have seen negative growth in electricity consumption since September. The decline in electricity demand has led to a reversal of supply and demand in electricity coal.
Metallurgical coal and coking coal are the biggest reductions due to the downturn in the steel, cement and nonferrous metals industries. According to the survey conducted by the China Coal Industry Association in late September and mid-October on coal companies in Shanxi and Henan provinces, Shanxi Coking Coal, Pan'an, Pingdingshan, Yongcheng, Shenhuo, and other companies are required to supply coal for blast furnaces and blast furnaces for metallurgical use. The volume has dropped sharply and prices have generally declined by 300-400 yuan/ton. Most steel companies require that shipments be temporarily suspended.
At present, coking coal is more worrying than the price drop is the capacity utilization. As the sales of steel mills have been hindered, plus high-priced finished products and high-priced raw materials in the previous period need to be digested. As the steel companies reduce the purchase of coke or coking coal, it is expected that the future of coking coal may face a situation where there is no market price. Before the stock of steel mills is digested, reducing production on the basis of price cuts may become a choice for coking coal companies. At present, the steel mills cut output by about 35%, while coke is expected to reduce production by about 70%.
In response to changes in the market, Shanxi Province has indicated that it wants to limit the production price. There are also industry insiders appealing that coal companies will jointly limit production, but although some coal companies have already begun to reduce production through such methods as suspension of production and maintenance, the number of producers that strictly restrict production is still small, and the output of raw coal has not dropped much.
C. Operational characteristics: Market volatility and uncertainty Large coal price may accelerate decline in the future
From January to September, the country’s raw coal output and transportation volume also maintained growth. In the first three quarters of the year, China's raw coal output was 1.934 billion tons, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year. The national coal railway transport volume was 1.023 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%. The transshipment volume of coal in major ports totaled 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%.
From September onwards, the impact of a sharp drop in downstream market demand is transmitted to the coal industry. The coal market presents the following major features:
First, the coal market is volatile. Before the Olympic Games, the price of coal rose all the way. The average price of the national coal market increased from RMB 506.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to RMB 849.5 yuan/ton at the end of August, an increase of 68%. After the Olympic Games, coal prices showed a downward trend. By mid-October, the national coal market average price fell to 799.6 yuan / ton, a drop of 6%.
Second, the transformation stage for small coal mines has not yet been completed. Since many small coal mines are still in the period of mine renovation this year, the production capacity cannot be fully released. In particular, since mid-September, major safety accidents have occurred continuously in coal mines, and Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, and Liaoning provinces have once again stepped up the efforts to close down the small coal mines. As a result, coal production capacity that is illegal and does not have safe production conditions and super-capacity production is curbed and, to a certain extent, coal supply is reduced.
Third, there has been regional differentiation in the price movements in the coal market in China. The export-oriented economy in the southeastern coastal areas, due to the impact of the global economic downturn, the economic development is facing difficulties, the demand for electricity and coal has been drastically reduced, and prices have fallen sharply. As the export-oriented Midwest, Northeast, and other regions, due to the impact of the world economic downturn is small, and the northern region is supported by the heating factors in winter, the shrinking demand for thermal coal is slightly slower, the prices are mainly showing a stable running situation However, the decline in metallurgical coal is more obvious.
Fourth, the stock of coal companies has risen rapidly. Following the record high inventory in transit in August, the coal inventory of power and metallurgical enterprises also rebounded sharply, both hitting record highs. The electricity company’s inventory for the month of September was 34.5 million tons, a 76% increase from the inventory in July. The inventory of coking coal users rose for seven consecutive months. Inventories in August were 5.38 million tons, an increase of 61% over the same period of last year. At present, coal inventories have been further transferred to coal companies, and the number of their inventories is rising rapidly.
Fifth, the growth rate of the downstream industry has dropped sharply, and coal demand continues to slow down. In September, thermal power generation fell 7.89% month-on-month, 2.7% year-on-year, and cumulative year-on-year growth fell to 8.2%; coke fell 13.5%, 9.9% year-on-year, cumulative growth fell to 8.1%; pig iron fell 6.23% in September %, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%, the cumulative growth rate dropped to 5.1%.
Sixth, the port prices are upside down at home and abroad, and net exports are turned into net imports. Due to the rapid decline in international coal prices, the domestic and international spreads have been reversed in October. The maximum value of the offshore price of the same value calorific coal price of Qinhuangdao Port is higher than that of Australia's BJ offshore price by approximately US$ 30, and imported coal has begun to hit the domestic market. In August, China's coal was converted from net exports to net imports, with net imports of 44,000 tons. The sea freight price of coal has fallen sharply, reflecting the reduction of coal demand from the side.
The accelerated decline in coal prices in China has seen signs of decline. At present, near the beginning of winter, the increase in demand for winter storage coal in northern China has certain support for domestic coal prices. After the weather is warmer, domestic coal prices may accelerate decline.
D. Problems and Suggestions: Changing Development Modes and Heavy Tasks Existing Problems in the Industry Still to Be Solved
In recent years, the coal industry has made considerable progress, mainly relying on the increase in the number and the increase in prices. The ability to rely on the advancement of its own technology to increase its efficiency has widened the gap with other industries. According to the statistics from the China Coal Industry Association, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress in the coal industry was only about 31%, which was far lower than other industries.
At present, the tax burden on coal before the VAT reform is 3% to 5%, and after the introduction of VAT, the tax burden has generally increased to 9.4%. At that time, the State Council unequivocally proposed that subsidies should be considered on the premise of not increasing tax burdens. In the first year of reform, subsidies were given to the coal industry. Subsequent changes in the system and other subsidies would disappear. In addition, local governments have successively introduced a series of local related policies, including the sustainable development fund for coal, transfer funds, environmental protection funds, and security funds. According to incomplete statistics, the expenditure for 1 ton of coal used in this area is 80 to 100 yuan, causing excessive pressure on the cost of coal companies.
In addition, the contradiction between the development of coal resources and environmental protection has become increasingly prominent. The resources in the eastern region have been greatly reduced. The western region is mainly concentrated in Shanxi because of various aspects of transportation. Both the environment and resources are under great pressure.
In response to the current problems and difficulties in the coal industry in China, industry experts have made the following suggestions:
First, to control the total amount, in particular to continue to close small mines that are illegal and do not have basic production safety. Although this work has been carried out in recent years, there are still more than 20,000 small mines, and the continued closure of small mines that do not have basic safe production conditions should still be the top priority.
Second, strengthen industry self-discipline, uphold integrity, continuously improve product quality, especially with users, and establish a mutually beneficial and win-win system. Industry experts stated that from 1998 to 2002, some large companies had owed coal billions of yuan and used the unpaid coal for their own economic construction. At present, coal companies must establish strategic partnerships with users to achieve mutual benefit and win-win progress, and prevent the recurrence of this new cycle.
Third, we must vigorously adjust and optimize the coal industry structure. China's coal industry must seize the opportunity to further promote the integration of coal resources, mergers and acquisitions, and accelerate the pace of the construction of large coal bases, large corporate groups.
Fourth, continue to adhere to the direction of coal market reform. China's coal market should further give play to the basic role of market allocation of resources, maintain a relatively stable policy, gradually eliminate the existing dual-track coal price system, and strive to improve the resource product pricing mechanism.
E. Trend: The overall trend of supply and demand tends to be loose The market is concerned about the reform of resource tax
According to relevant experts, coal consumption in 2008 was about 2.74 billion tons, an increase of 4.5%, an increase of 5 percentage points over the previous year. The coal market will continue to develop in a loose direction overall, and thermal coal is expected to maintain its overall basic balance and fluctuate with seasonal changes.
A. Data: Reversal of Supply and Demand Relations Coal prices at home and abroad successively “divideâ€
In the first three quarters of the year, the country's raw coal output was 1.934 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. The growth rate was 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, and the total social coal inventory reached 120 million tons. In the first eight months, the coal industry realized a profit of 139 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 times. However, since September, due to deceleration of demand, the supply and demand situation of coal has tended to ease, and the market price has gradually shifted from the rapid rise in the first half of the year to a gradual fall. The coal deposits of ports and power companies have increased.
Since September, the thermal coal market has gradually developed from a tight balance and a loose direction. The coal inventory of power plants has increased, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Market prices in some regions have declined. In November, the situation became even more severe. Coal prices in Qinhuangdao Port continued to “divide†and fell by nearly RMB 100/t per week. From June onwards, the demand for steel products declined, the market price dropped sharply, and the growth rate of output continued to decline. In August, negative growth began to occur, resulting in a sharp drop in the demand for coal coke products and a sharp drop in prices, which fell by 50 to 500 yuan/ton. . In September, the national chemical fertilizer production decreased year-on-year, and the demand for lump coal declined. As of November, the price of lump coal has dropped from RMB 1100 to RMB 1200/ton in September to RMB 600~900/ton.
In mid-October, the coal trading price of Newcastle Port on the global coal trading platform has dropped from US$161.35/ton in early September to less than US$110/ton. Recently, after the international crude oil price fell below 50 U.S. dollars, international coal prices appear to be repeating the trajectory of the former parabolic decline. The international coal price, which was already under US$100 per ton, fell by nearly US$12/ton in late November and fell to US$85.69/ton, with a fall of 12.13%. At the same time, the prices of dry bulk shipping, including coal, on international routes have also dropped significantly. The current level of purchasing Australia's high-quality thermal coal has approached the same quality of thermal coal in the domestic market and shipped from Qinhuangdao and other northern ports. The cost price level to Guangzhou Port.
B. One of the operating characteristics: The downstream market is shrinking sharply
All indications indicate that the economic growth rate of the main coal mining industry will further decline, even negative growth. Therefore, the growth rate of coal demand may further slow down and may even shrink.
In September, the US subprime mortgage crisis quickly evolved into a global financial turmoil. The international oil and natural gas prices dropped sharply, which put a certain pressure on coal prices. The thermal coal price in Newcastle, Australia, the world’s largest coal export port, continued to fall after setting a record of 19.79 U.S. dollars per ton on July 4. It fell back to about US$104.70 per ton on October 17. 46.3%. The same sharp decline also appeared in the European market. On October 17th, the European thermal coal price index fell from US$141.25/tonne in the previous week to US$120.72/tonne. Within a week, it dropped by 14.53%, setting the record for the biggest drop this year. .
In this context, China's coal exports in September amounted to 2.08 million tons, a sharp decline of 53.6% year-on-year, and the chain also fell by 38%, setting a new low since March of this year.
In the first nine months, the cumulative generating capacity of power plants above designated size nationwide was 26,072 billion kWh, an increase of 9.9% year-on-year, of which thermal power increased by 8.2%, and the growth rate decreased by 8.5 percentage points year-on-year. Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu have seen negative growth in electricity consumption since September. The decline in electricity demand has led to a reversal of supply and demand in electricity coal.
Metallurgical coal and coking coal are the biggest reductions due to the downturn in the steel, cement and nonferrous metals industries. According to the survey conducted by the China Coal Industry Association in late September and mid-October on coal companies in Shanxi and Henan provinces, Shanxi Coking Coal, Pan'an, Pingdingshan, Yongcheng, Shenhuo, and other companies are required to supply coal for blast furnaces and blast furnaces for metallurgical use. The volume has dropped sharply and prices have generally declined by 300-400 yuan/ton. Most steel companies require that shipments be temporarily suspended.
At present, coking coal is more worrying than the price drop is the capacity utilization. As the sales of steel mills have been hindered, plus high-priced finished products and high-priced raw materials in the previous period need to be digested. As the steel companies reduce the purchase of coke or coking coal, it is expected that the future of coking coal may face a situation where there is no market price. Before the stock of steel mills is digested, reducing production on the basis of price cuts may become a choice for coking coal companies. At present, the steel mills cut output by about 35%, while coke is expected to reduce production by about 70%.
In response to changes in the market, Shanxi Province has indicated that it wants to limit the production price. There are also industry insiders appealing that coal companies will jointly limit production, but although some coal companies have already begun to reduce production through such methods as suspension of production and maintenance, the number of producers that strictly restrict production is still small, and the output of raw coal has not dropped much.
C. Operational characteristics: Market volatility and uncertainty Large coal price may accelerate decline in the future
From January to September, the country’s raw coal output and transportation volume also maintained growth. In the first three quarters of the year, China's raw coal output was 1.934 billion tons, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year. The national coal railway transport volume was 1.023 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%. The transshipment volume of coal in major ports totaled 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%.
From September onwards, the impact of a sharp drop in downstream market demand is transmitted to the coal industry. The coal market presents the following major features:
First, the coal market is volatile. Before the Olympic Games, the price of coal rose all the way. The average price of the national coal market increased from RMB 506.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to RMB 849.5 yuan/ton at the end of August, an increase of 68%. After the Olympic Games, coal prices showed a downward trend. By mid-October, the national coal market average price fell to 799.6 yuan / ton, a drop of 6%.
Second, the transformation stage for small coal mines has not yet been completed. Since many small coal mines are still in the period of mine renovation this year, the production capacity cannot be fully released. In particular, since mid-September, major safety accidents have occurred continuously in coal mines, and Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, and Liaoning provinces have once again stepped up the efforts to close down the small coal mines. As a result, coal production capacity that is illegal and does not have safe production conditions and super-capacity production is curbed and, to a certain extent, coal supply is reduced.
Third, there has been regional differentiation in the price movements in the coal market in China. The export-oriented economy in the southeastern coastal areas, due to the impact of the global economic downturn, the economic development is facing difficulties, the demand for electricity and coal has been drastically reduced, and prices have fallen sharply. As the export-oriented Midwest, Northeast, and other regions, due to the impact of the world economic downturn is small, and the northern region is supported by the heating factors in winter, the shrinking demand for thermal coal is slightly slower, the prices are mainly showing a stable running situation However, the decline in metallurgical coal is more obvious.
Fourth, the stock of coal companies has risen rapidly. Following the record high inventory in transit in August, the coal inventory of power and metallurgical enterprises also rebounded sharply, both hitting record highs. The electricity company’s inventory for the month of September was 34.5 million tons, a 76% increase from the inventory in July. The inventory of coking coal users rose for seven consecutive months. Inventories in August were 5.38 million tons, an increase of 61% over the same period of last year. At present, coal inventories have been further transferred to coal companies, and the number of their inventories is rising rapidly.
Fifth, the growth rate of the downstream industry has dropped sharply, and coal demand continues to slow down. In September, thermal power generation fell 7.89% month-on-month, 2.7% year-on-year, and cumulative year-on-year growth fell to 8.2%; coke fell 13.5%, 9.9% year-on-year, cumulative growth fell to 8.1%; pig iron fell 6.23% in September %, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%, the cumulative growth rate dropped to 5.1%.
Sixth, the port prices are upside down at home and abroad, and net exports are turned into net imports. Due to the rapid decline in international coal prices, the domestic and international spreads have been reversed in October. The maximum value of the offshore price of the same value calorific coal price of Qinhuangdao Port is higher than that of Australia's BJ offshore price by approximately US$ 30, and imported coal has begun to hit the domestic market. In August, China's coal was converted from net exports to net imports, with net imports of 44,000 tons. The sea freight price of coal has fallen sharply, reflecting the reduction of coal demand from the side.
The accelerated decline in coal prices in China has seen signs of decline. At present, near the beginning of winter, the increase in demand for winter storage coal in northern China has certain support for domestic coal prices. After the weather is warmer, domestic coal prices may accelerate decline.
D. Problems and Suggestions: Changing Development Modes and Heavy Tasks Existing Problems in the Industry Still to Be Solved
In recent years, the coal industry has made considerable progress, mainly relying on the increase in the number and the increase in prices. The ability to rely on the advancement of its own technology to increase its efficiency has widened the gap with other industries. According to the statistics from the China Coal Industry Association, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress in the coal industry was only about 31%, which was far lower than other industries.
At present, the tax burden on coal before the VAT reform is 3% to 5%, and after the introduction of VAT, the tax burden has generally increased to 9.4%. At that time, the State Council unequivocally proposed that subsidies should be considered on the premise of not increasing tax burdens. In the first year of reform, subsidies were given to the coal industry. Subsequent changes in the system and other subsidies would disappear. In addition, local governments have successively introduced a series of local related policies, including the sustainable development fund for coal, transfer funds, environmental protection funds, and security funds. According to incomplete statistics, the expenditure for 1 ton of coal used in this area is 80 to 100 yuan, causing excessive pressure on the cost of coal companies.
In addition, the contradiction between the development of coal resources and environmental protection has become increasingly prominent. The resources in the eastern region have been greatly reduced. The western region is mainly concentrated in Shanxi because of various aspects of transportation. Both the environment and resources are under great pressure.
In response to the current problems and difficulties in the coal industry in China, industry experts have made the following suggestions:
First, to control the total amount, in particular to continue to close small mines that are illegal and do not have basic production safety. Although this work has been carried out in recent years, there are still more than 20,000 small mines, and the continued closure of small mines that do not have basic safe production conditions should still be the top priority.
Second, strengthen industry self-discipline, uphold integrity, continuously improve product quality, especially with users, and establish a mutually beneficial and win-win system. Industry experts stated that from 1998 to 2002, some large companies had owed coal billions of yuan and used the unpaid coal for their own economic construction. At present, coal companies must establish strategic partnerships with users to achieve mutual benefit and win-win progress, and prevent the recurrence of this new cycle.
Third, we must vigorously adjust and optimize the coal industry structure. China's coal industry must seize the opportunity to further promote the integration of coal resources, mergers and acquisitions, and accelerate the pace of the construction of large coal bases, large corporate groups.
Fourth, continue to adhere to the direction of coal market reform. China's coal market should further give play to the basic role of market allocation of resources, maintain a relatively stable policy, gradually eliminate the existing dual-track coal price system, and strive to improve the resource product pricing mechanism.
E. Trend: The overall trend of supply and demand tends to be loose The market is concerned about the reform of resource tax
According to relevant experts, coal consumption in 2008 was about 2.74 billion tons, an increase of 4.5%, an increase of 5 percentage points over the previous year. The coal market will continue to develop in a loose direction overall, and thermal coal is expected to maintain its overall basic balance and fluctuate with seasonal changes.
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