The substitution of the fuel tax for road maintenance fees, the purchase tax for passenger vehicles with 1.6L or less displacement, and the implementation of the “cars to the countryside†three policies have had an important impact on the auto market. We believe that the short-term stimulus effects of these policies on consumers are greater than the long-term effects; we believe that the stimulative effects of policies will continue in February-March, and will gradually weaken after April; and in the reduction of purchase tax and The last month of the "automobile going to the countryside" policy implementation deadline, December 2009, passenger car sales are expected to be pulled again. Taking into account the over-reaction of passenger vehicles to sales warming and policy stimuli in the early stage, we gave the passenger car industry a “Reduce†rating.
Commercial vehicle sales in January hit a new low in recent years. We expect the rebound in commercial vehicle sales this year to advance to February and March. At present, the share price of most companies in commercial vehicles has doubled from the low point in the second half of 2008. We believe that the current share price of commercial vehicles has fully reflected this expectation of sales rebound, thus giving the commercial vehicle industry a “neutral†rating.
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