China drying Reuters since mid-November, the domestic coal tar market experienced a warmer stabilized after more than one month of continuous decline in the stock market. As of November 25, the mainstream transaction price of domestic modified coal bitumen was 2,700 to 2,750 yuan (t price, the same below), and medium temperature coal bitumen to 2,400 to 2,450 yuan, with weekly gains of 1.8% and 2%, respectively. As a kind of bulk product in the deep-processing industry, coal-tar pitch has added a warmth to the recent decline in the coal chemical winter market.
- The warming up of raw materials began in early November. Due to the increasing demand for coal tar from carbon black enterprises, especially in areas with more carbon black enterprises such as East China and North China, the price of coal tar is generally raised by 200-250 yuan. The mainstream transaction price is between 2550 and 2800 yuan. Some suppliers in East China have offered more than 2,850 yuan, and each coking plant has a low inventory, with a very high price intent, and a gradual decrease in the number of low-level sources. In other regions, there has been basically an upward trend, and the coal tar market has started to rebound in the last 3 weeks. Under this background, the coal tar deep-processing enterprises are facing the pressure of a substantial increase in production costs, and they have begun to push up the market price of coal-tar pitch in order to achieve a smooth transfer of prices.
- Short-term stock declining In the recent month, the operating rate of domestic coal tar deep-processing enterprises further decreased, and the comprehensive utilization rate fell below 40%. In particular, some small-scale deep-processing enterprises basically stopped production. Although the operating rates of enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Hebei, and Northeast China have recently been enlarged, some companies have just started to drive. The former sources of futures are basically consumed. At present, there are not many sources of supply. The market supply cannot be upgraded in time, causing short-term social inventories to drastically decrease. . At the same time, traffic factors in some areas have affected the inter-regional circulation of coal tar pitch, which has broken the balance between supply and demand in the market and is also one of the main reasons for promoting this round of warming up the market.
At the end of the year, the preparation of the downstream stockpiles began. It is understood that in December coal-tar pitches and other coal chemical products began to be ready for stockpiling, especially for deep-processing varieties of coal chemical companies, because of the large number of such products in domestic SMEs, and large enterprises before and after the Spring Festival. Some stop production or production restrictions, and in December each year to January next year is also a period of intense train transportation, when the supply will inevitably be affected. Therefore, downstream companies will stock up in December to ensure normal production during the Spring Festival. Due to continued limited production of the coking industry this year, social inventories have dropped to a new low, and some downstream companies have begun to prepare for the preparation of the library in advance, which has also promoted the rebound of the current round of warming.
However, the low prices of aluminum caused electrolytic aluminum companies to fall into a loss-making situation, and the electrolytic aluminum industry was in a downturn. Due to the fact that there are still more restricted producers, there is still a lack of substantial demand for the coal-tar pitch market. The resistance is still in the balance and high-price transactions are still limited. In addition, the carbon companies gradually stabilized after a round of incremental storage and purchased on demand. Shanxi's enterprises are preparing to produce one after another. Currently, the operating rate is about 55%. Companies in Shandong, Hebei and other places have also started to drive one after another. The rebound in coal-tar pitch will continue to be a negative factor. However, due to the restrictions on transportation and tar procurement difficulties, there are still many companies in the northwest and southwest regions. It is expected that the deep-processing enterprises will not be able to significantly increase the operating rate. The market is expected to form the mainstream trend of short-term recovery and stabilization in the medium term.
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