2013 harvester market growth or decline

In the context of the slowdown in the growth rate of China's machinery industry, the market for harvesting machinery has been advancing all the way, and the total volume has been rising. In the first three quarters of this year, the harvester market showed a continuous increase in demand and highlighted the two major characteristics of demand inflection points.

The demand inflection point highlighted the first turning point in the demand category. The wheat harvester market experienced a significant decline from last year's growth. In the first nine months, the market's decline was over 50%. The second is the demand for corn harvesters. This year's signs have become even more prominent this year, following the start of the "turnover" to self-propelled vehicles last year. According to market research, the total consumption of self-propelled harvesters accounted for more than 80% of total consumption in the first 9 months. Third, the inflection point of the rice harvester market showed that the semi-feeding market continued to shrink, and the whole feed harvester seized the market high ground. Fourth, the tendency of consumers to buy more obvious, prominent performance in the brand concept to further strengthen.

The deep-seated reasons for the steady growth of the domestic market for harvesting machinery this year are the following.

First of all, the demand structure of the harvesting machinery market is being accelerated under the promotion of agricultural machinery subsidy policies, that is, in the category of demand, the conversion from the knapsack harvester to the self-propelled harvester is accelerated, such as the corn harvester market, and the bearer harvester this year. The decline was nearly 80%, and the self-propelled harvester soared. In the demand product, advanced models replaced the backward models and became a bright spot in the market, such as the double-roller longitudinal flow grain combine harvester. Selling is a reflection of these changes in demand, but also changed the demand structure of the harvester market in China, and accelerated the pace of market updates.

Second, the subsidies for agricultural machinery continued to stimulate, pushing up market demand. This year's 20 billion yuan in subsidies for agricultural machinery has become a powerful promoter in the harvesting machinery market, especially the corn harvester, which has become a key machinery for subsidies, which has effectively boosted the rapid growth of the market.

Third, the income from farmers' cross-region operations increased to stimulate consumption. According to market surveys, among the harvester market users, more than 50% of the operators have increased their profits, and only about 10% of the consumers have experienced a downturn. This contrast shows that the consumers of harvesters in China are satisfied with this year's revenue-generating operations. This situation has greatly stimulated potential market demand and advanced the harvester market this year.

Fourth, the harvester has been updated faster. A market survey shows that there are a large number of harvester users tend to "new", that is, they are chasing new harvesters. In this group, the useful life of the harvester is generally 2 to 3 years, immediately after the cost recovery, immediately Buy new machine. This rapid update has driven the market demand. In addition, China has a huge amount of harvesters, which last year reached more than 1.11 million units. This has determined that there is a large amount of space created by the renewal of the harvester and ensures a huge annual consumption of the harvesting machinery market.

Strong growth in the main market, sudden emergence of emerging markets

This year's market performance in the harvesting machinery market is dominated by strong growth in the market, and emerging markets have emerged as a distinctive feature. From the regional market analysis of grain harvesters in China, the top six demand regions in Jiangsu and Hunan accounted for more than 60% of the total consumption, except for the 10.9% and 19.9% ​​of landslides in Hunan, Shandong, and other four major regions. Both experienced different degrees of growth, especially in the Jiangxi and Jiangsu markets, which increased 163% and 72.1% year-on-year, respectively, and accounted for 3.5% and 5.4 percentage points, showing a strong momentum of expansion.

The above changes in the grain harvester regional market reflect the distinct characteristics of the market demand for wheat and rice harvesters in China this year. Since the beginning of this year, the demand for the wheat harvester market in China has dropped drastically, driving down the total consumption of grain harvesters in the Shandong and Henan markets. As a result, these two markets have experienced a significant year-on-year decline, and a percentage decline has been rapid. In contrast, due to the rapid growth of the rice harvester market, the markets of Jiangxi, Anhui and Jiangsu have entered the fast-track growth.

From the regional market analysis of corn harvesters, the characteristics of hotspot rotation are presented. On the one hand, Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi markets, which are hot spots for China's corn harvester demand, have experienced significant declines this year, down 13.3% and 31%, respectively, and 14.6% year-on-year. The regional share is also 19.7, 11.9, and 8.8. The percentage point was substantially reduced. In contrast, the Hebei and Heilongjiang markets experienced arrogant growth, up 276.1% and 456.3% year-on-year, respectively. The regional share also increased by 9.8 and 9.5 percentage points, and the Jilin market increased by 60.4% year-on-year, but accounting for The base is large but it has dropped by 2.1 percentage points.

The regional change of the corn harvester market shows that the hot demand area of ​​the corn harvester market in China is rapidly shifting. From the traditional Huang-Huai-Hai area to the Northeast, Hebei and Inner Mongolia "Three-North" area. In particular, the rise of the Heilongjiang and Jilin markets, which are China's major corn growing regions, indicates that the golden development period of the Chinese corn harvester market is approaching.

The next year will increase or will bottom out, category demand ice fire with the furnace

After years of rapid growth in the harvester market in China, the total annual consumption will reach a record high of about 900,000 units, but the growth rate will narrow, and it may end at a slight increase of around 3% year-on-year. The harvester market will not be optimistic next year, and the declining growth rate will become the keynote for the harvester market next year. We believe that the harvester market will continue to operate at a high level next year, with a total consumption of about 850,000 units; however, the rate of increase will decline slightly, and the rate of decline will be around 5%.

From the analysis of the three major crop harvesters market, they are different from each other. The rapid development of the corn harvester market, the low level of machine revenue, and the support of government subsidy funds, coupled with the maturity of this type of machinery, will determine the momentum of rapid development next year. The wheat harvester has fallen sharply this year, and it will decide that there will be a rebound next year, although the demand for power comes from the update. Rice harvesters have similarities with wheat. This year's substantial growth may bring about a landslide next year. Therefore, it is doomed that in the market demand structure of the harvester will continue to stage the drama of the fire and the fire.

The above judgments mainly depend on the following factors: From the macro-environmental analysis, the three major factors affecting China's economy this year are: high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and signs of a gradual slowdown in the real economy growth. The lifting of the inflection point of inflation and the increase of financial policy support will provide a good macro environment for the harvester market next year. From the analysis of the meso-environment, with the acceleration of urbanization in China, the trend of aging in rural areas is getting more and more serious, and the transfer of labor force continues to develop. In order to solve the agricultural cultivation and harvest, both need to promote the mechanization process and provide development opportunities for the harvester market. . From the micro-environmental analysis, China's policy of strong peasants, beneficial peasants, and rich peasants will continue to be fermented for many years, and the amount of subsidies for agricultural machinery will continue to increase next year, which will provide strong impetus for the development of the harvester market next year.

Why does it mean that the harvester market in our country will keep running at a high level, but the growth rate will decline slightly?

The main reason for maintaining high operation is that China is a country with a large demand for harvesters. Although the rigid demand gradually decreases, the huge amount of updates will support the high position of the whole harvester market. Second, next year, China's subsidy policy will further promote the development of the harvester market in China and maintain the steady progress of the market. Third, China's corn harvester market has a large space for development, and the periodic growth of wheat harvesters has become a vital force to support the market's high level of operation.

The main reason for the slight decline is that with the continuous improvement of the level of agricultural mechanization, especially the increase in the harvest rate of the three major crops will block the pace of the rapid harvest of the harvester market. In 2011, the machine harvest levels of wheat, rice, and corn reached 91.05%, 69.32%, and 33.59%, respectively. In addition to the low harvest level of the corn harvester, there is still room for growth. The mechanization of the harvester has already been achieved. The level of mechanization for rice harvesting will exceed 70% this year, and will further approach mechanization. There is little room for rigid growth. There are huge economic growth crops, such as sugar cane, cotton and rapeseed, but now there are few domestically-made mature machines. Many factors have determined that the growth in the total demand of the harvester market is a necessary one.