China will usher in the spring of corn by-product market

China will usher in the spring of corn by-product market

Northeastern enterprise purchase price is stable and declining

It is understood that the amount of corn in the northeastern region has been relatively large, and some of the reservoirs have been reduced. In some parts of Jilin, the inventory of corn for temporary storage in 2013 has dropped from 1,750 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton. The downward adjustment of the price prompted the company to follow the downward adjustment of the listed purchase price. At present, the northeastern region's temporary storage corn is also supplied to the southern market in large quantities. Because of its low price and cost advantage, up to now, the 15% moisture third-class corn purchase price of large-scale corn deep processing enterprises in the Suihua area of ​​Heilongjiang Province is 1,700 yuan/ton. Stable; Jilin Siping area purchase price of 1,650 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton from last weekend; Liaoning Tieling area into the factory price of 1,600 yuan / ton, basically stable, the current policy in the northeast of the country is positive, the processing enterprises have abundant food sources, the market The acquisition volume is small.

North China enterprise purchase price continues to fall

It is understood that the current farmers in North China are still selling large quantities of grain. The main reason is that the new wheat is not listed in the North China region for less than one month. Farmers need to sell most of the corn and then tamper with wheat. As of last week, the sales progress of farmers in North China was 82%. In the past few years to mid-June, the sales progress of farmers in North China reached an extreme value of 95%, which means that 13% of corn will be supplied to the market within one month. The total amount is about 8.6 million tons. Affected by this, the purchase price of corn in North China's deep processing enterprises continues to decline slightly. Up to now, the 14.5% moisture corn of deep processing enterprises in Weifang, Shandong Province has entered the factory price of 1700-1740 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last weekend; the price of corn in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province is 1670 yuan/ton, which is basically stable; the price of corn in Hebi area of ​​Henan Province 1660 yuan / ton, basically stable. At the same time, the consumption of corn in North China in the next month is about 5.5 million tons. Considering that processing enterprises will increase their corn stocks by 1-2 weeks and certain foreign transportation demand, the total demand may be close to the supply of farmers. However, in the next month, some inter-provincial transplanted corn may enter the market. The total supply may exceed the total demand. There may be some pressure on the price of corn. In addition, the market needs to pay attention to the time, quantity and price of corn targeted sales.

Jilin storage corn first auction attracts attention

On May 6, 2016, the fourth provincial-level reserve grain rotation bidding sales fair of Jilin Province was launched, and this year, the provincial reserve corn was auctioned, and the planned sales of corn 33,248.575 tons, the actual transaction was 779.561 tons, the turnover rate was 23.45%, and the high transaction price was 1830. Yuan / ton, low transaction price of 1610 yuan / ton, the average transaction price of 1620.80 yuan / ton. Judging from the details of the auction, the grain source was sought after, and the first-class and second-class grain sources all showed obvious premium transactions. Among them, the second-class corn in 2012 was 1610 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton; the first-class corn transaction in 2013 1830 yuan / ton, a premium of 180 yuan / ton. It is reported that on May 13th, the fifth provincial-level reserve grain rotation bidding sales transaction in Jilin Province will be launched soon. It is planned to auction a total of 205,000 tons of surplus grain sources on the 6th. From the current auction list, the first-class grain source has only 3,000 tons left. With only 6500 tons of grain source (should be stored), the prospect of grain supply is evident. In addition, early this week, rumors began to auction 3.8 million tons of soybeans in the national reserve next week, and plans to put 100,000 tons per week. This is reminiscent of whether the corn reserve auction with the same gas is close at hand.

North China starch enterprises continue to increase losses

At present, the domestic starch quotation is stable, including the ex-factory price of starch in Shandong Weifang area of ​​2120-2200 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of starch in Xingtai area of ​​Hebei Province is 2080-2130 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of starch in Jilin Changchun area is 2050-2150 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of starch in Kaiyuan, Liaoning Province was 2,200-2,250 yuan/ton, and the prices were the same as last week. In general, the starch industry still maintains a high operating rate, while starch sales performance is general, starch enterprise inventory pressure remains, and price increase momentum is insufficient, but after May, the demand for starch sugar in the beer and beverage industry will gradually increase, then starch Demand is expected to improve and will support the price. It is understood that the current processing profit of processing 1 ton of corn in the starch enterprises in Binzhou, Shandong Province is -179 yuan / ton, and the profit is 21 yuan / ton without depreciation; the processing profit of processing 1 ton of corn in the Changchun area of ​​Jilin Province under consideration of subsidies is - 103 yuan / ton, excluding the depreciation profit of 97 yuan / ton, other areas in the Northeast without subsidies are in a state of serious losses. Due to the rising cost of raw materials in North China, the processing losses of starch enterprises are also expanding. Even if the depreciation situation is not considered, the profit is already relatively meager. Compared with this, the cost of raw materials in Northeast China has not changed much, and the prices of by-products such as protein powder are firm. The profit situation has improved slightly. In the short term, there are two main supporting factors for starch price in North China: First, the price of corn. Although the price of corn on the weekend is slightly lower, the possibility of trend decline is small, which supports the price of starch. Second, the profit of starch processing, currently in North China. Starch processing is in a state of small loss, starch processing enterprises have a strong willingness to “price”. In the medium and long term, the consumption of starch and downstream products will enter the peak season after entering the summer season, which will obviously play a role in the price of starch.

Alcohol producers have a small profit

At present, domestic alcohol prices are stable, and the price of by-product DDGS has risen steadily. Among them, the ex-factory price of alcohol in the eastern region of Heilongjiang (the general-grade alcohol-containing tax price, the same below) is 4,600 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of the Siping area in Jilin is 4,500-4,600 yuan. / ton, Shandong Weifang ex-factory price 5000-5100 yuan / ton, Henan southern region ex-factory price 4600-4700 yuan / ton, are the same as last week; Heilongjiang Mindong region alcohol company DDGS (protein content 28%, fat content 3% The ex-factory price is 1400-1450 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of Jilin Meihekou area is 1500-1550 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of Shandong Weifang (protein content 26%, fat content 10%) is 1550-1600 yuan/ton. Last week, it rose by 50 yuan / ton. It is understood that many small alcohol companies are still in a state of suspension. The operating rate of the alcohol industry is still at a low level of around 45%. The company has no inventory backlog. Although the alcohol industry is in a low season of consumption, the price of alcohol has remained stable. As the number of imported DDGS is expected to decrease in the later period, and the domestic alcohol industry starts to remain low, DDGS output is limited, and both support DDGS prices. At present, the theoretical processing profit of 1 ton of corn processed by alcohol enterprises in Nanyang, Henan is -67 yuan / ton; the profit of processing of 1 ton of corn processed by Jilin enterprises after considering subsidies is 13 yuan / ton, which has been profitable since October last year, but other Northeast The profit of alcohol processing in areas without subsidies is still in a state of serious losses. In the later period, China's over-storage corn (mainly in 2012) will be mainly targeted to alcohol companies. As the cost of raw materials falls, the profit of alcohol processing will improve.

Corn by-product market opportunities are coming

From the situation of the corn storage in Jilin Province on May 6, the price of corn in the auction according to the quality of the products has declined step by step, and the raw material cost of deep processing enterprises is expected to decrease. However, in the short term, the auction of the temporary storage is not opened, and the procurement of deep processing enterprises is actually cheap. The processing volume of raw materials is not high, the operating rate of the industry remains low, and the spot price of domestic soybean meal oscillates high. The high profit of pig breeding in China stimulates the replenishment, which promotes the increase of stocking inventory in the feed enterprises. The deep processing of corn by-products is tight in the current corn market. Under the situation that the policy negative factors did not work, the price of several corn by-products showed a high market, and the imported DDGS spot was also boosted by the domestic soybean meal and DDGS external disk.

In summary, the price of domestic corn market is under pressure recently, and the reserve price of provincial-level reserve corn in local production areas is lower than that of the market, which makes deep processing enterprises hope to reduce the cost of raw materials. However, the low number of auctions makes the company profitable, and the market is eager to I hope that when the National Reserve Corn Open Auction will be opened. In general, the policy grain outsourcing has pushed down the cost of raw materials for deep processing enterprises, and the operating rate of the industry will gradually pick up. It will promote the easing of the shortage of corn by-products, promote the oscillation of corn processing products, and pay attention to the corn cost and operating rate of deep processing enterprises in the short term. Of course, for deep processing enterprises that are looking forward to reserve corn day and night, Jilin Province's temporary storage corn is out of the warehouse, and the northeast targeted over-storage storage corn auction is just around the corner, which is believed to be beneficial to the decline in production costs of deep processing enterprises. In addition, the pressure of corn storage in China's temporary storage is still in the background of the second phase in May. At this time, the local reserve auction corn, the planned price reduction and the sale of corn are undoubtedly suggesting that the “Hongfeng” is coming soon, and its rotation price is on the verge The reserve price of the reserve corn auction has certain reference value. Therefore, we can pay close attention to the relevant situation of the reserve price of corn storage in Jilin Province on the 13th. I believe that the formal public auction of the temporary reserve will start in May.